The EU is not static — it has continuously evolved through treaty changes, enlargements, and policy innovation. This final chapter covers the ongoing debate about the EU's future: institutional reform proposals, the major challenges facing the Union today, the Conference on the Future of Europe, and who currently holds key EU positions. This is the context that frames all other chapters.
1. How the EU Changes: Treaty Revision Procedures
The EU's foundational texts (TEU and TFEU (Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union)) can only be changed through formal procedures set out in Art. 48 TEU. There are two main tracks:
- Any member state, the Commission, or the EP proposes amendments
- European Council convenes a Convention (representatives of national parliaments, EP, national governments, Commission) — or bypasses it for minor changes
- An Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) agrees the text by consensus
- Ratification by all member states required (unanimity)
- Most ambitious route — used for major treaty changes (Lisbon, Nice, Amsterdam)
- Only for Part Three of the TFEU (internal policies)
- European Council decides unanimously — no Convention, no IGC
- Still requires ratification by all member states
- Cannot increase EU competences
- Passerelle clauses: allow the European Council to shift from unanimity to QMV (Qualified Majority Voting) or from special to ordinary legislative procedure, without full treaty revision
2. The Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE)
Launched in April 2021 and concluded in May 2022, the Conference on the Future of Europe was an unprecedented pan-EU democratic exercise. Citizens from all 27 member states participated in European Citizens' Panels and national panels alongside MEP (Member of the European Parliament)s, national parliamentarians, Council, Commission, and civil society.
CoFoE Key Outputs (May 2022): The Conference produced 49 proposals and 326 specific measures across 9 themes: climate change & environment; health; stronger economy & social justice; EU in the world; values & rights; digital transformation; democracy; migration; education & culture. Key calls included: treaty reform, transnational electoral lists, right to health in EU Charter, end of unanimity in Council on key issues, EU standing army.
Institutional response: The European Parliament called for a convention to reform the Treaties based on CoFoE proposals (April 2022 resolution). The Council has been more cautious. As of 2025, no formal IGC has been launched, but several CoFoE proposals are being pursued through secondary legislation or informal mechanisms.
3. Key Current Reform Debates
4. The EU's Five Scenarios (White Paper 2017)
In 2017, the European Commission published a White Paper on the Future of Europe with five scenarios for how the EU could evolve by 2025. Although the White Paper predates several major developments (COVID, Ukraine war), it remains a reference point in EU future debates.
1
Carrying On
EU-27 proceeds with current reform agenda. Incremental progress on implementing agreed commitments. No major structural changes. Status quo, with gradual improvements.
2
Nothing But the Single Market
EU refocuses on the internal market only. Roll back of deeper integration. Member states take back control in areas like social policy, security, foreign affairs.
3
Those Who Want More, Do More
Enhanced cooperation extended. Core group of willing member states integrates further (e.g. on defence, taxation, social policy). Two-speed Europe becomes institutionalised.
4
Doing Less More Efficiently
EU focuses on fewer policy areas but acts faster and more decisively where it does act. Clear distinction between EU-level and national-level action. Better application of subsidiarity.
5
Doing Much More Together
EU27 decides to share more power, resources, and decision-making. Faster, united decisions on all major issues. More federalist model. Would require significant treaty change.
5. Major Challenges Facing the EU Today
🇷🇺
Russia's War in Ukraine
Largest military conflict in Europe since WWII. EU imposed 14+ rounds of sanctions. Provides military, financial, humanitarian support to Ukraine. Reshapes enlargement, defence, energy policy.
🌡️
Climate & Energy Security
Delivering Green Deal 2050 goals while managing energy transition costs. Dependence on imports. REPowerEU to cut Russian gas dependency. Competitiveness concerns vs US Inflation Reduction Act.
📉
Competitiveness Gap
Draghi Report (2024): EU faces €800bn/year investment gap vs US & China. Lags in tech, AI, productivity. Requires deeper Capital Markets Union, deregulation, strategic autonomy in key sectors.
🏛️
Rule of Law Crisis
Democratic backsliding in Hungary and (previously) Poland raised fundamental questions about EU values enforcement. Art. 7 proceedings ongoing against Hungary. Balance between solidarity and conditionality.
🌊
Migration & Asylum
Ongoing irregular migration flows. New Pact on Migration (2024) tries to balance solidarity and responsibility. Political polarisation between member states. External dimension (deals with Turkey, Tunisia, Libya) raises human rights concerns.
📡
Digital & AI Governance
EU leads globally on digital regulation: GDPR, Digital Markets Act, Digital Services Act, EU AI Act (2024 — world's first comprehensive AI regulation). Challenge: regulate without stifling EU tech competitiveness.
6. Current EU Leadership (2024–2029 Commission)
Key Officeholders — 2024/2025
🇵🇹 António Costa
President of the European Council
Since December 2024
🇩🇪 Ursula von der Leyen
President of the European Commission
Second term: since December 2024
🇪🇪 Kaja Kallas
High Representative for Foreign Affairs / VP
Since December 2024
🇲🇹 Roberta Metsola
President of the European Parliament
Re-elected July 2024
🇨🇾 Cyprus — rotating
Council Presidency — Cyprus (Jan–Jun 2026)
Ireland takes over July 2026
🇧🇪 Christine Lagarde
President of the European Central Bank
Since November 2019; term to Oct 2027
7. The EU Reform Procedure (Art. 48 TEU) — Key Steps
1
Proposal
Any member state, Commission, or EP may submit proposals to the European Council to amend the Treaties.
↓
2
Convention or Direct IGC
For major amendments: the European Council (by simple majority) convenes a Convention of representatives from national parliaments, EP, member state governments, and Commission. For minor amendments, the European Council may decide directly to convene an IGC (with EP consent).
↓
3
Intergovernmental Conference (IGC)
An IGC of representatives of member state governments agrees on the treaty amendments by common accord (consensus).
↓
4
Ratification by All Member States
Amendments enter into force when ratified by all 27 member states in accordance with their national constitutional requirements (parliamentary vote or referendum). Any single state can block ratification.
Key Terms
Art. 48 TEU
Treaty revision procedure — both ordinary (Convention + IGC + ratification by all) and simplified (European Council + all ratify).
CoFoE
Conference on the Future of Europe (2021–2022) — pan-EU citizens' consultation; produced 49 proposals; called for treaty change.
Passerelle Clause
Mechanism allowing shift from unanimity to QMV or from special to ordinary legislative procedure, without full treaty revision — by unanimous European Council decision.
EU AI Act
Regulation 2024/1689 — world's first comprehensive AI regulation; risk-based approach; bans unacceptable risks; strict rules for high-risk AI systems.
Draghi Report
September 2024 report by Mario Draghi on EU competitiveness — identified €800bn/year investment gap; called for deeper integration, Capital Markets Union, strategic autonomy.
Rule of Law Conditionality
Regulation 2020/2092 — links EU budget payments to rule of law compliance. Used to freeze Hungarian funds. CJEU upheld its legality in 2022.
IGC
Intergovernmental Conference — the body of member state representatives that negotiates and agrees treaty amendments by consensus.
Differentiated Integration
Some member states integrate more deeply than others in specific areas (euro, Schengen, PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation), EPPO (European Public Prosecutor's Office)). Also called "variable geometry" or "enhanced cooperation."
Question 1
Under Art. 48 TEU, who can initiate proposals to amend the EU Treaties?
A) Only the European Commission
B) Only member state governments
C) Any member state, the European Commission, or the European Parliament
D) The European Council and the Court of Justice only
✓ Correct Answer: C — Art. 48(2) TEU states that any member state government, the Commission, OR the European Parliament may submit proposals to the European Council for the amendment of the Treaties. The European Council then decides whether to convene a Convention.
Question 2
The Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE) concluded in which year?
A) 2019
B) 2021
C) 2022
D) 2023
✓ Correct Answer: C — CoFoE was launched in April 2021 and concluded on 9 May 2022 (Europe Day). It produced 49 proposals and 326 specific measures, calling inter alia for treaty reform, transnational lists, and end of unanimity in the Council on key issues.
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